The $4 trillion argument over the cost of Trump's big bill

President Donald Trump's megabill costs either $4 trillion over a decade or a small fraction of that. Even nothing, depending on whom you ask.

The nonpartisan Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget projected on Tuesday that the Senate GOP version of the tax bill costs $4.2 trillion over ten years. What gives?

The answer lies in a well-worn bipartisan tradition of end-runs around Washington's nonpartisan, independent scorekeepers of legislation like the Congressional Budget Office and the Joint Committee of Taxation.

Late last year, many GOP senators landed on a procedural trick wiping out most of the price of extending the Trump tax cuts. They argued for employing a "current policy baseline" since it assumes maintaining the status quo costs nothing. The costly $4 trillion endeavor includes the child tax credit, a larger standard deduction and keeping lower individual tax brackets in place.

That's expensive enough. But it didn't include the litany of campaign promises from Trump, including no tax on tips and overtime pay, and a larger deduction for seniors. Those added more headaches among Republicans who had to figure out how to cram as much of their priorities as possible into one legislative vehicle with strict budgetary rules governing it.

As Republicans view it, they are laboring to prevent a tax increase on most American families. A new Joint Committee of Taxation score requested by Republicans indicated that their entire tax bill would cost only $441 billion, since it relied on GOP assumptions their package costs nothing.

“Extending the Trump tax cuts prevents a $4 trillion tax increase — this is not a change in current tax policy or tax revenue," Senate Finance Chair Mike Crapo said in a weekend statement.

Democrats, though, assailed the score as "magic math" that camouflages the real cost of the GOP tax bill. "Republicans finally showed their hand, and its completely dishonest," Sen. Jeff Merkley, the ranking Democrat on the Senate Budget panel, said in a statement. "Current policy baseline’ is a budget gimmick that is nothing more than smoke and mirrors instead of honest accounting."

Even some GOP tax experts cried foul. "Don't be fooled by the $4 trillion budget gimmick in the JCT score," George Callas, executive vice president at Arnold Ventures and a former GOP aide, wrote on X. "Senate Finance is claiming the tax title costs $441 billion -- when in fact it's $441 billion MORE EXPENSIVE than making $4 trillion in tax cuts permanent."