The Dow rises 140 points as inflation cools and consumer spending jumps

U.S. stocks ended the day at about break-even on Wednesday as newly released economic data gave reason for cautious optimism.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished the day up 142 points, or 0.4%, a 900-point swing from its daily low that morning. The S&P 500 eked up, gaining 0.2% on the day, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq finished down slightly, losing 0.1%. All three indexes had shown steep declines shortly after the bell.

The rebound followed the release of a report from the Bureau of Economic Analysis that showed that inflation-adjusted consumer spending climbed in March, possibly as Americans looked to get ahead of coming tariff-related price increases. The personal consumption expenditures price index, meanwhile, remained unchanged from a month earlier for the first time in nearly a year.

Investors are bracing for a deluge of earnings in the coming days, with Microsoft (MSFT) and Meta (META) reporting earnings after the bell Wednesday.

Here’s what to watch today.

U.S. economy contracts but inflation remains steady

The U.S. economy shrank for the first time since 2022, as rising imports weighed on GDP and inflation ran hotter than expected.

According to the Bureau of Economic Analysis’s advance estimate, gross domestic product contracted at an annualized rate of 0.3% in the first quarter — steeper than the 0.2% decline economists had forecast. The drop marked a sharp reversal from the 2.4% growth rate logged in the final quarter of 2024.

But the report showed that inflation-adjusted consumer spending climbed by 0.7% in March. The personal consumption expenditures price index, the Fed’s preferred recession indicator, remained unchanged from a month earlier for the first time in nearly a year.

Still, prediction markets now point to strong belief that a recession is on the way — or already underway.

Visa beats on earnings, market shrugs

Visa (V) posted a strong Q2, with non-GAAP EPS up 10% to $2.76 and revenue rising 9% to $9.6 billion. Payments volume grew 8%, cross-border volume rose 13%, and the company announced a $30 billion buyback. Visa shares climbed 1.2% on Wednesday and are up 25% in the last 12 months.

Starbucks stock sinks on slipping sales

Starbucks (SBUX) shares tumbled 5.7% Wednesday after reporting a rough quarter. U.S. comparable sales dropped 2% on a 4% decline in transactions, while international operating income fell 7%. Overall EPS sank 50%. Executives blamed restructuring costs and bad weather, but flat China sales and shrinking foot traffic point to a broader consumer slowdown.

Yum and Mondelez buck the trend

Yum Brands (YUM) delivered a solid quarter: EPS rose 13% as strength at Taco Bell and KFC offset weakness at Pizza Hut. CEO David Gibbs credited Yum’s global reach, its digital momentum, and a new AI partnership with Nvidia (NVDA). Shares of Yum Brands climbed 1.9%.

Mondelez (MDLZ) also posted strong results, with organic revenue up 4.2% and EPS nearly 9% higher. Emerging markets drove growth, while North America held steady. Cookies and chocolate, it turns out, remain a resilient indulgence even as pricier café visits lose steam. Shares rose 3.8% Wednesday.

Travel demand stays afloat

Booking Holdings (BKNG) beat expectations with 8% revenue growth and a 7% increase in gross bookings. Alternative accommodations outpaced traditional hotels, and the company saw a big jump in flight bookings. The results stand in contrast to recent airline warnings, hinting that travelers may be shifting how — but not whether — they spend. The company’s stock price was up 3.9%.